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[商业新闻] 2014-10-20&10-22 美国油价大跌

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[商业新闻] 2014-10-20&10-22 美国油价大跌

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U.S. retail sales fall, oil prices drop   

Wells Fargo Chief Economist John Silvia discusses the drop in U.S. retail sales and oil prices.


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homework
I think we probably have to talk about(sure) the near term and the long term, and first, let's start the drop in the retailer sales, first since January, is this a one-time fact or is this a sign that US economy is in trouble?

well, it is certainly a sign that a lot of people is gonna take down there forecast , 200% in  the GDP for the second half of this year, in addition, Maggie, dont forget we also got the producer price index here today , which is down in the empire index as well as disappointing, so those three indicators together do suggest that we have a growth in US economy, but it's very modest. I think ultimately what will happen, Maggie, is you see the feder reserve lowering its feder funding for the end of 2015 below the current 1.3%, but the three numbers together are disappointing for the overall outlook.




now we have the fact that energy's price falling, we know that its hit energy stocks, that would be a problem for the stock market. but for consumers, this has to be a good news, it's helping to put much-needed cash in those pockets ahead of holiday spending, and we know that gas is one of those things that felt directly to the consumer balance sheet, is that gonna will help us, is that gonna help offset any weakness we've seen?

absolutely, it's low gas price that lead more real disposal income, that will help offset some other weakness, but consumer confidence is very fragile, and as earlier story on a bowel mention, and that is gonna have an impact on the consumer confidence, and quite frankly, the customer some people are going and shop, when they're not certain about the environment dealing with,

yep, that's a good point, and the confidence is played so much in this , what about corporate side? we have started to see finally corporations feeling a bit more confidence and expanding a little their business, we are hoping it's gonna be lead to their hiring, what are we expect from earning season(财报), are we heal that confidence follow through or is this gonna be yet another worry that will push stocks lower?

see confidence is a very fragile aspect for the whole story, you would think that it better cooperate earnings, the growth would continue, the job gains are 200,000 plus , and that's a good sign, but when you want businesses to invest, it is expected future path of consumer spending, that's a major driver, and retail sales today tells us our expected future growth is probably gonna be much modest than people had expected a week ago. that does seems to be what investors are price-in, john silvia from wells fargo , thanks so much for joining us today.
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[Homework]2014-10-20&10-22 美国油价大跌

I think we probably have to talk about the near term and then the long term, first let's start with that drop in retail sales, first one since January, is this a one time factor or is this a sign that the US economy is in trouble?
Well it's certainly a sign that a lot of people are going to take down their forecast of 3.5-4% GDP in the second half of the year, in addition Maggie don't forget we also get the producer price index today which was down and the empire index as well was disappointing, so those three indicators together do suggest that we have growth in the US economy, but it's very modest, so i think ultimately what will happen Maggie is you will see the federal reserve lowing its federal fund rate forecast for the end of 2015 below the current 1.3%, but the three numbers together are disappointing for the overall outlook.
Now John we have the fact that we have energy prices falling, we know it's hitting energy stocks, that's problem for the stock market, but for consumers this has to be good news, as it's helping put some much needed cash in those pockets ahead of holiday spending, and we know the gases is one of those things that filters directly to the consumer balance sheet, is that going to help us, is that going to help offset any weakness we are seeing?
Absolutely, it's lower gas prices that lead to more real disposable income that will help offset some of other weakness, but you know consumer confidence is very fragile and as your earlier story on Ebola mentioned, i mean that's going to have an impact on consumer confidence and quite frankly the willingness of some people to go out and shop when they are not certain about the environment they are dealing with.
Yeah that's a good point, and confidence plays this so much, what about the corporate side, we had started to see finally corporations feeling a little bit more confidence, spending a little bit of those business expenditures, we were hoping it's going to lead to hiring, what do we expect from earning season? are we going to hear that confidence follow through or is it going to be yet another worry that could push stocks lower?
Yeah see confidence is a very fragile aspect to the whole story Maggie, and you'd think that with better corporate earnings growth would continue, and job gains are 200,000 plus, and that's a good sign, but when you want businesses to invest, it is the expected future path of consumer spending, that's a major driver and retail sales today tells us that expected future growth is probably going to much modest than people had expected a week ago.
And that does seem to be what investors are pricing in, John Silvia from W, thank you so much for joining us today.

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[Homework]2014-10-20&10-22 美国油价大跌

Homework
Host: I think we probably need to talk about the near term and the long term. First let's start with that drop in retail sales, first one since January. Is this one time factor or is this a sign that US economy is in trouble?


Well it's certainly that a lot of people would take down their forecast, 3.5 to 4 percent in the second half of the year. In addition, Maggie, don't forget we also get the producer price index today, which was down and the empire index as well as disappointing. So, those three indicators together, do suggest that we've grown the US economy, but it's very modest. So I think, ultimately what will happen, Maggie, is you'll see federal reserve lowering its federal fund rate forecast for the end of 2015 below the current 1.3 percent. But these three numbers together are disappointing for the overall look.


Host: Now, John, we have the fact that the energy price's falling. We know it's hitting the energy stocks. That's problem for the stock market. But for consumers, this has been a good news. It's helping put some much in need cash in the pocket ahead of holiday spending. We know that the gas is one of those things that * directly to the consumer balance sheet. Is that could help us? Is that going to help offset any weakness we've seen?


Yeah. Absolutely, its lowering gas prices are leading to more real disposable income that will help offset some of other weaknesses. But, you know, the consumer confidence is very fragile and as your early story Ebola mentioned, that's going to have an impact on the consumer confidence. And quite frankly the willingness of some people to go out and shop when they are not certain about the environment they are dealing with.


Host: That's a good point. And confidence plays this so much. What about the company side. We had started to see finally corporation's feeling a little bit more confident, spending a little bit of those business expenditures. We're hopping it's going to lead to hiring. What do we expect expect for the * season? Are we going to hear that confidence follow through or it's yet another worry that could push the stocks lower?


Yeah. Since the confidence is very fragile aspect of the whole story, Maggie, and you would think that with better corporate earnings, growth would continue. And job gains are 200,000+. And that's a good sign. But when you want business to invest, it's expecting the future path of consumer spending. That's a major driver and the retail sales tells us that expected future growth is probably much more modest than people had expected a week ago.


Host: And that does seem to be what investors are pricing in. John *, thank you very much for joining us today.


This post was generated by put listening repetition system,  Check the original dictation thread!
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I think we probaly have to talk about the near term and the long term,first let's start with that drop in retail sales. First one since January,is this a one time factor or a sign that Us economy is in trouble.Well,it's certainly a sign that a lot of people are gonna take down their forcast of 3.5 percent of GDP in the second half of the year. In addition,Maggie, don't forget we also get producer price index today which was down and empire index as well is dissapointing.So for those 3  indicators together,do suggest we have the growth of US economy,but it's modest.Altmatly, I think,Maggie, what will happen,as you'll see, is Fed reserve lowering its fund interest  forcast for the end of 2015,below the current 1.3%.But 3 numbers together are dissapointing for over outlook.  Now,John,we have the fact we have energy prices falling we know it's hitting energy stocks,that's a bit of problem for stock market.But,for the consumers, this has to be a good news it's helping put some much needed cash in those pockets.I had a holliday spending. We know gases are one of those things faltering directly to the consumer's ballance sheet.Is that can help us?That can offset any weakness forseen.yeah,I'm so absolutely, its lower gas prices lead more real disposable income.That will help offset some of other weakness.But you know consumers confidence is very fragile and.... as your early story of Ebola mentioned,I mean,that's going to have a impact on consumer confidence. And quite frankly,the worriness of some people are growing in shop when they are not certain about the environment they are dealing with.Well, that's a good point, and the confidence plays into so much.What about the corporate side,we have started to see, finaly corporationgs feeling a little bit more confident,spending a little bit as business expands.We are hoping it's going to lead a hiring.What we are going to expect from earning season.We are getting here that confidence follows through.Or yet this can be another worry that coult push stock lower.Yeah,so the confidence is a very fragile aspect as a whole story, Maggie.And you would  think that with better corporate earnings, growth will continue. And job gains are 200000 plus, and that's a good sign. But when you want a business to invest as its expected future path of the consumers spending.That is a major driver.And retail sales today tell us the aspect of future growth is far to become much more modest than people had expected a week ago.
homework---"I think we have to talk about the near term and then the long term, first let's start with that drop in retail sells, first one since January, is this one time factor or is this a sign that US economy is in trouble?" " What is certainly a sign that a lot of people are gonna take down their forecast of four percent GDP in the second half for the year. In the addition Maggie don't forget we also got the produce of price index today which is down in the empire index as well was disappointing. So those free indicates together do suggest we have growth in US economy but is very modest, I think automatically what will happen Maggie is your see the federal reserve lowering its federal funds rate for a cast for the end of 2015 below the current  one point three percent but...together are disappointing for the over outlook. " " Now John we have the fact we have energy prices falling we know it's hitting energy stocks that's probably problem for the stock market. But for consumers this has to be good news, it's helping put some much needed cash in those pockets. I had a polity spending and we know that gas is one of those things that filters directly to the consumer balance is that gonna help us is that gonna hire oxcide and weakness for seeing? " " Yeah absolutely it's a lower gas price that led to more a real dispossible for land come. That'll help oxide some of these weakness but you know consumer's confidence is very fratulent and as your early story and boer are mention that's going to have an impact on consumer confidence and quite frankly that will link some people grocery shop when they are not certain about the involvement that dealing was. " " That's a good point and confidence placed into the so much. What about the core prite side we had started to see...feeling a little bit more confident spending a little bit those business expend jers we are hoping it's gonna to lead to hiring what we expect from earning season or we are gonna to hear that confidence follow through or this is gonna to be yet another worried that could push ox lower." "Yes confidence is a very fragile last back to the whole story Maggie. And you do think that was better corporate earnings growth would continue and job gained are 2 thousand plus and that's a good sign. But when you want businesses to invest, it's the expected future pass of consumer spending that's a major driver and retail sells that it tells us that an expected future growth is probably gonna to be much more modest and people had expect that weeks ago. " "does seem to be what investors are pressing in. John, thank you so much for joining us today."
HOMEWORK

I think we probably (sure) have to talk about the near term and then the long term. First, let’s start with that drop in retail sales, first one since January. Is this a one-time factor or is this a sign that the U.S. economy is in trouble?

Well, it’s certainly a sign that a lot of people are gonna take down their forecast of 3.5% to 4% of GDP in the second half of the year. In addition, Maggie, don’t forget we also got the producer price index today, which was down and the empire index as well was disappointing. So those three indicators together do suggest we have growth in the economy, but it’s very modest. So I think ultimately what will happen, Maggie, is you will see the Federal Reserve lowering its federal fund rate forecast for the end of 2015 below their current 1.3%. But the three numbers together are disappointing for the overall work.

Now, John, we have the fact that we have energy prices falling. We know it’s hitting energy stocks. That’s been a problem for the stock market. But for consumers, this has to be good news that’s helping put some much needed cash in those pockets ahead of holiday spending. And we know that gas is one of those things that filters directly to the consumer balance sheet. Is that gonna help us? Is that gonna help offset any weakness we were seeing?

Yep, absolutely. It’s lower gas price that leads to more real disposable income. That’ll help offset some of these other weakness. But you know, consumer confidence is very fragile and as your earlier story on Ebola mentioned, I mean, that’s going to have an impact on consumer confidence and quite frankly, the willingness of some people to go out and shop when they are not certain about the environment they are dealing with.

Yeah, that’s good point. And confidence plays into this so much. What about the corporate side? We had started to see finally corporations feeling a little bit more confident, spending a little bit of those business expenditures. We were hoping it was gonna lead to hiring. What do we expect from earning season? Are we gonna hear that confidence follow through or is this gonna be yet another worry that could push stocks lower?

Yeah, see, confidence is a very fragile aspect to the whole story, Maggie. And you would think that with better corporate earnings, growth would continue, and job gains are 200,000 plus. And that’s a good sign. But when you want businesses to invest as its expected future path of consumer spending, that’ a major driver. And retail sales today tell us that the expected future growth is probably gonna be much more modest than people had expected a week ago.

And that does seem to be what investors are pricing in. John Silvia from Wells Fargo, thank you very much for joining us today.
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