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[访谈录] 【整理】2008-12-02&12-04 亚洲经济前景猜想

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On Bill2008

 

 

We've heard about the government helping out the Citygroup yesterday, today the US Federal Reserve announces they are going to help infuse 800 billion dollars, what else is going to be changing the market in the coming weeks?


Well, certainly the efforts that have been most recently been annouced are kind of trying to get the morgage rice down, because although we've seen interest rates cut sinificantly over the last year or so, morgage rates stay stuburnly high, so the they face the latest action is aimed at trying to get the borrowing close down for household. And as we get closed to short term interest rates getting to zero, you are gonna to see more and more, I guess, unorthodox measures are being taken by the Fed, in addition, I think what the analysts are looking for, or what investor management are looking for, are more fiscal stimulus and we problely to see some sorts of package announced in Europe. Um, today or later this week, we are expected to see um Fiscal stimulus in the US as well.


Another big headline is the big merger, they have been talking about it for months, BHP and / obviously, not going to merge, where the commodities stand right now?


Well, certainly commodities have fantastic run, and we see a lot of heat taking out at that market, partly as the result of the investors believing that the economy slow down, it's going to lower demand for commodities, but also because commodities have really emerge yet again have been financial assets with a lot of speculation in that market, and a lot of heat have been taking out has been reaction to revalue the financial system, which is not only affecting commodities but it's also affecting equity and financial system.


And talking about forcast, IMF is cutting its GDP for Asia to 6%, and the International Monetary Fund basiclly has said, you know, it's pushing more countries to do /push for economic stimulus plans, and you said, you know we might hear one for the European, whoelse could it be?


Well, we have already seen a massive package in China which annouced to 17, 18% of  GDP, whether or not the mainland can actually spend that amount of money, takes time to transmit the money into project, into fiscal stimulus programme, that remains to be seen, but we are gonna see /need to see a more coodinated effort, particularly in the US and with the Europe to try stimulates demand, try to get that money into the market, in terms of surporting the consumers, particularly in the US, before we are gonna get the business confidence come back. And that's  really what investors look at now, they are looking through the next year's earnings really, at the macro numbers, weak job data, prices CPI reducing, so you are looking at the prospects of deflation, weaker / which is really not surport of growth as we look out into nine and ten.


As concentrated on the confidence, ah, you know, there are some companies that are doing well, ah Goldminers, /  which other companies?


Well, there's plenty of companies with strong cash flows, particularly in this region, you got companies both here in Europe and selectively in the US on very high as a result of strong cash flows, and this pretty much across the much /because in this financial downturn, there are a few analysts out there covering companies, because investment bank pull back from some of their core activities, so you gotta get down /data and understand what's going on, but there are opportunities, but at the moment it's basiclly one brush across the whole market, the markets have been / there are opportunities there, but until confidence returns, until we see some measures take hold, we are not gonna see market move up in a substantial way.

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