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[访谈录] 【整理】2008-12-02&12-04 亚洲经济前景猜想

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We've heard about the government helping out Citigroup yesterday. Today the US Federal Reserve announced that they are going to help infuse 800 billion dollars, (Right. ) what else is going to be changing the markets in the coming weeks? Well, certainly the efforts that have been most recently announced are aimed at trying to get mortgage rates down. Because although we've seen interest rates cuts significantly over the last year or so, mortgage rates have stayed stubbornly high, so the Fed's latest action is aimed at trying to get borrowing cost down for households. And it's eh, as we get closer to short term interest rates getting to zero, you are gonna to see more and more, I guess, unorthodox measures being taken by the Fed. In addition, I think what analysts are looking for, what investment managers are looking for, are more fiscal stimulus and we are probably gonna see some sort of package announced in Europe, um, today or later this week and we expect to see fiscal stimulus in the US as well.

 

And another big headline is the big merger, they have been talking about it for months, BHP and Rio Tinto, obviously not going to merge, where do commodities stand right now? Well, certainly commodities had a fantastic run, and we’ve seen a lot of the heat taken out of that market. Partly as a result of investors believing that the economic slowdown is gonna lower the demand for commodities, but also because commodities have really emerged yet again as being a financial asset with a lot of speculation in that market, and a lot of the heat that's been taken out has been a reaction to the deleverage in the financial system, which is not only affecting commodities but is also affecting liquidity in the financial system.

 

And talking about forecast, IMF is cutting its GDP for Asia to 6%. And the International Monetary Fund basically has said, you know, it's pushing more countries to do push for economic stimulus plans, and you said, you know we might hear one for, uh , out of the European, (Yes. ) who else could we? Well, we have already seen a massive package in China which amounts to sort of 17, 18% of GDP. Whether or not the mainland can actually spend that amount of money, it takes time to transmit the money into projects, into fiscal stimulus programs, that remains to be seen, but we are gonna see, need to see a more coordinated effort, particularly in the US and with Europe to try and stimulate demand, trying to get that money into the market/ in terms of supporting the consumer, particularly in the US, before we are gonna see business confidence come back. And that's really what investors are looking at now. They are looking through next year's earnings really, at the macro numbers. Weak job data, you know, prices, CPI reducing, so you are looking at prospects of deflation, you know, weaker wage growth which is really not supportive of growth as we look out into 09 and 10.

 

Let s concentrate on the confidence, ah, you know, there are some companies that are doing well, (indeed) ah gold miners, pharmaceuticals, (Yes. ) which other companies? Well, there're plenty of companies with strong cash flows, particularly in this region, and you’ve got companies both here in Europe and selectively in the US on very high yields as a result of the strong cash flows, and it's pretty much across most sectors. You’ve got to be pretty selective. Because in this financial downturn, there are / fewer analysis out there covering companies, because the investment banks have pulled back from their, some of their core activities, so you’ve gotta get down and rescrub the data and understand what's going on. But there are opportunities, but at the moment it's basically, you know, one brush across the whole market. The markets have been de-rated. There are opportunities there, but until confidence returns, until we see some of these measures take hold, we are not gonna see market move up in a substantial way.

 

 

原帖由 jjmm 于 2008-12-5 14:08 发表 We've heard about the government helping out Citigroup yesterday. Today the US Federal Reserve announced that they are going to help infuse 800 billion dollars, (Right. ) what else is going to be chan ...

 

 

MM那个market or markets t后面滴实在很难分,在BBC滴时候就很头痛这个了,这里偶听着还是没有s额...

analyst 是我错了,主版大人已经“教训”偶了

rescrub前面有讨论撒

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原帖由 johnsonchen688 于 2008-12-5 21:53 发表    晕,就是大家讨论一些疑点嘛~  北星斑斑很尽职很负责,是普特的好同志,同志们辛苦啦~

 

讨论你可以跟贴嘛,何必pm,偶脸皮很厚滴

 

好桐子? 呵呵,偶只是看不下去,再加上某人滴"举报"才出来滴。。。

到了MT了,就不是看不下去而是受不了了所以能做滴都做了。。。

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又仔细听了下,可不可能是you've got to get down, and you scrub the data and understand what is going on...

 

但是现在看这句话有点奇怪撒,按理说是观察,分析某一data后才understand这样才说滴通阿,scrub data计算机上用滴较多呀,把data scrub掉了,对understand 有什么帮助么?

 

姐,数据清理主要是用于填充不完整数据,光滑数据,纠正不一致数据。

 

举个例子,偶办信用卡,如果银行要偶输入驾照号,偶没有,偶就不会填那一项。但是这样不能把偶的数据加入数据库,数据清理就可以在这一项填充“unknown” 或用其他方法。

 

再有,偶填办卡日期该用格式“mm/dd/yyyy",但是偶填的是“2008/12/08”,数据清理就是要对它处理

 

这方面偶也不太清楚,可能有些不准确的地方,姐,大概知道是这意思就好了

 

--skyRo

[ 本帖最后由 skyRo 于 2008-12-8 12:06 编辑 ]
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原帖由 skyRo 于 2008-12-8 20:36 发表   重新清理数据啊。偶感觉那个音发的很弱,说不好是哪个,偶只有一条理由(但是不是太有力):它前后跟一个get down和understand,作为一个连续的思路,中间跟一个直接的动词偶觉得比较符合语言习惯。 &nbs ...

 

 

问题是scrub or rescrub data 跟 understand有什么关系? 没有什么帮助呀。。。  逻辑上是你研究了数据,分析了数据才有了understand呀。。。

话说光抬扛感觉还真不错,不当斑竹滴好处,hoho

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