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[访谈录] 【整理】2008-12-02&12-04 亚洲经济前景猜想

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 We've heard about the government helping out Citigroup yesterday, today the US Federal Reserve announced that they're going to help infuse 800 billion dollars. What else is going to be changing the markets in the coming weeks?
 
 Well, certainly the efforts that have been most recently announced aim at trying to get mortgage rates down because although we see interest rates cut significantly over the last year or so, mortgage rates stay stubbornly high. So the Fed's latest action is aimed to trying to get borrowing cost down for households. And it's a, as we get closer to short-term interest rate getting to zero, you're gonna see more and more, I guess orthodox majors being taken by the Fed. In additional think, what analysts are looking for, what investment managers are looking for are more fiscal stimulus, then we're probably gonna see some sort of package announced in Europe, today or later this week. And we expect to see a fiscal stimulus in the US as well.
 
 And another big headline is the big merger, they've been talking about it for months, BHP and Rio Tinto obviously not going to merge. Where do commodities stand right now?
 
 Well, certainly commodities had a fantastic run, and we've seen a lot of heat taken out that market. Partly as a result of investors beliving the economic slowdown is gonna lower the demand for commodities, but also because commodities have really emerged yet again as being a financial asset with a lot of speculation in that market, and a lot of heat has been taken out, has been a reaction to the deleverage in the financial system, which is not only affecting commodities but it also affecting liquidity in the financial system.
 
 And talking about forecast, IMF is cutting its GDP for Asia to 6%. And the International Monetary Fund basically has said, you know, it's pushing more countries to do push for economic stimulus plan than you said, you know, we might hear a wonderful // European. Who else could wake?
 
 Well, we've already seen a massive package in China which it mounts to sort of 17,18% of GDP, whether or not the mainland can actually spend that amount of money, it takes time to transmit the money into projects, into fiscal stimulus and programs that remain to be saying. But we're gonna say it needs to see a more coordinated effort, particularly in the US with Europe to try to stimulate demand, trying to get that money into the markets, in terms of supporting the consumers particularly in the US, before we're gonna see business confidence come back. And that's really what investors are looking at now, they're looking through next year's earnings really, at the macro numbers. We drop dates on, you know, precise CPI reducing, so you're looking at prospects of deflation, you know, weak wage growth which is really not supportive of growth as we look out into 09 and 10.
 
 As concentrate on the confidence, you know, there are some companies that are doing well, gold miners, //, which are the the companies?
 
 Well there are plenty of companies with strong cash flows that's particular in this region, you've got companies both here and Europe, and a selective in the US are very high yield, as a result of this strong cash flows, and it's pretty much across most sect. You gotta be pretty selective because in this financial downturn, there are fewer analysts out there covering companies because investment banks have pulled back from some of their core activities, so you've gotta get down and rescribe the day to understand what's going on. But there are opportunities, but at the moment, it's basically, you know, one brush across the whole market, the markets have been derated, there are opportunities there, but until confidence return, until we see some of these measures take hold, we're not gonna see markets move up in a substantial way.
 

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