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[访谈录] 【整理】2008-12-02&12-04 亚洲经济前景猜想

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We heared about the government helping out city group yesterday. Today the US'd better reserve. They announced they are going to help assumed 800 milllion dollars. What else is going to be changing the market in the coming weeks.

We are certain the efforts have been recently announced and tried to get the mortgage rates down. Because we always see the interest rates cut significantly over the last year. Also mortgage rates states stubbornly high, so that fades latest reduction is trying to get borrowing cost down for household. And it's, as we get close to, short-term interest rates are getting to zero. You gonna see more and more, I guess also adopted measures being taken by the fate. In additional thing, we analyst are looking for, our investment managers are looking for more fiscal stimulus. We probably gonna see some sort of package annouced in Europe today or later this week. And we expect to see fiscal stimulus in the US as well.

And another big headline is the big merger they've been talked about it for a month, BHP and Real ten toe, obviously not going to merge. Where are commodities going to stand right now?

Well certainly commodities had a fantastic  ground, and we see a lot of hit taken out of the market. Partly it is the result of the investors' believing that the economy slowdown is going to lower the demand for commodities. But also because commodities have really emerged yet a gain, a financial assist with a lot of speculation in that market. And a lot of hit has been taken out , has been a reaction to the de-average to the financial system, which is not only affecting commodities but is also affecting equity in the finantial system.

And talking about full cast. IMF is cutting its GDP for ASIA to 6%. And international monitor fund basically has said, you know, pushing more countries to do, push for economic stimulus plans. And you said, you know, we want here for one of the Europeans. Who else could we?

We already see the massive package in China which amounts to sort of 17 to 18 % of GDP. Whether or not the mainland can actually spend that amount of money takes time to transmit that money into projects, into fiscal stimulus program. That remains to be seen. But we are going to need to say a more coordinated effort particularly in the US with Europe to try to stimulate the demand, try to get that money into the market in terms of supporting the consumer particularly in the US, before we gonna see business confidence come back. And that's what investors are looking at now. They are looking through next year early really at the macro numbers, we job data, you know, prices, CPI reducing. So you are looking at prospects of deflation, you know, weak wage growth, which is really not supportive of growth as we look on into 09 or 10.

That concentrates on the confidence. You know, there are some companies they are doing well. Gold miners,*. Which other companies.

A plenty of companies with strong cash flow, particularly in this region, you got companies both here and Europe. And selects in the US are very high yields as a result of the strong cash flows. This pretty much across the most sectors, you gotta be selective, because in this financial downturn, there are many analysts out there covering companies because investment companies are pulled back from their some of the core activities. You gotta get down and rescrap the data and understand what's going on. But there are opportunities. But at that moment, it's basically you know one brush across the whole macket. The market is being derated. There are opportunities there. But untill confidence returns, untill we see some of these measures take hold, we aren't gonna say markets move up in an sub-essential way.

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