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[商业新闻] 2015-12-28&12-30 国际油价跌至11年来最低 俄罗斯经济崩溃?

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[商业新闻] 2015-12-28&12-30 国际油价跌至11年来最低 俄罗斯经济崩溃?

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Low oil prices hit Russian economy   

Russia's Ruble hits a near-record low due to low oil prices. Sberbank CIB FX & Rates Chief Strategist Tom Levinson explains.


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Well, I think for the rubble, it’s pretty much all about the price of oil. You’ve referenced the fact that the rubble as it is weak today as it was about a year ago. The difference is a year ago, Russia and rubble were hit by several facts both internal and external. But today, internal things are rather under control. It’s much more now about the price of oil. So you have to take a view on the price of oil to know where the rubble is going over the next few months. If you take that view that oil prices have further to fall perhaps the early part of the next year, then yes, the downside is there for the rubble. But we think it’ll steady and put X too much further from the current levels.

Tom, what impact is this having on the real economy in Russia?

Well, ever since Russia moved to a more floating currency rate a year ago, the currency has really served as exactly it should be which is in a X for other problems or other issues facing the economy. So for Russia it’s a good thing that with oil prices falling, the rubble also declines because the price of oil is denominated in dollars, but its receipts in terms of spending in Russia’s economy is denominated in rubbles, so the price of oil in rubbles has risen pretty much on chains because the currency has been able to fall to ajust a lower price of oil. So it’s a good adjustment factor.

Now that’s a really interesting and important point to bring up. In other places where you don’t have that great flexibility, I mean it is really difficult if you get those markets moving in different directions. I’m curious. You said…you talked about the fact that the guess is that the rubble was stabilized. I know a lot of people are thinking that at some point, oil is gonna stabilized, but they were proved wrong before this year. At this point, are you seeing investors taking long term bets and sort of buying on this dip, buying into Russia these prices or are they just too much uncertain, even for the most sort of aggressive investors out there?

I think certainly investors are, are trading carefully, but they are certainly very intrigued by the Russia story. For markets, it’s all about what’s price sting. We know that Russia has been through a tough period, but is that much further downside for Russia and for Russian financial assets? A lot of investors begin to think that maybe the bad news is price sting and looking towards 2016, maybe there are some potential lopside. When you are talking about investment opportunities in emerging markets, generally we look at the overall and global risk environment. A lot of people for example are very concerned about the implications of U.S. interest rate hikes through the course of next year, we see the rubble and Russia assets are X desensitized from what happens in the U.S. with interest rate. So for that perspective, I think investors are intrigued, whether they are ready or not for invest, I’m not so sure about it. But certainly it’s an interesting case study.

And watching it closely, the other issues of course in Russia are geopolitical concerns. Even if you think you get a handle on oil, the Ukraine situation still unresolved. And of course, Russia X front and center in the Syrian situation. Again, is that gonna be a risk that’s hard to quantify for investors?

I think it’s quite hard to judge exactly what is price into Russian assets and rubble as well in terms of the geopolitical factor. What we do observe is that whereas a year ago, developments in Ukraine would have a day-to-day or intraday impact on Russian assets. Today markets don’t seem to move on an intraday basis depending on what happens geopolitically. Certainly if things are to be resolved or improved, I think that will lead to one of X positive reaction in Russian financial assets. But I think for now, exclusive investors are treating it as a neutral factor. Markets are rather less than X they worked to that fact. They put a X in their background.
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[Homework]2015-12-28&12-30 国际油价跌至11年来最低 俄罗斯经济崩溃?

I think for the Ruble it's pretty much all about the price of oil, you reference the fact that the Ruble is as weak today as it was about a year ago, the difference is that a year ago Russia and the Ruble were hit by several factors both internal and external, but today internal things are rather under control, it's much more now about the price of oil, so you have to take a view of the price of oil to know where the Ruble is going over the next few months, if you take the view that the oil price has further to fall, perhaps in the early part of next year, then yes, the downside is there for the Ruble, but we think it will steady and * too much further from the current levels.
Tom, what impact is this having on the real economy in Russia?
Well ever since Russia moved to a more floating currency regime a year ago, the currency has really served as exactly what it should be which is an escape valve for other problems or other issues facing the economy, so for Russia it's a good thing with oil prices falling, the Rubble also declines because the price of oil is denominating in dollars, but its receipts in terms of spending in the Russian economies not denominating in Rubbles, so the price of oil and Rubles have risen pretty much unchanged because of the currency has been able to fall to adjust the lower price of oil, so it's a good adjustment in fact.
That's a really interesting and important point to bring out, in other places where you don't have that degree of flexibility, it is really difficult if you get those markets moving in different directions, I'm curious you talked about the fact that the guess is that the Ruble will stabilize, I know a lot of people are thinking that at some point oil is going to stabilize, but they were proved wrong before this year, at this point are you seeing investors taking long term bets and sort of buying on this dip, buying into Russia these prices or there is just too much uncertainty even for the most sort of aggressive investors out there?
I think certainly investors are treading carefully, but they are certainly very intrigued by the Russia story, for market it's all about what price did, we know that Russia has been through a tough period, but is there a much further downside for Russia and for Russian financial assets, a lot of investors are beginning to think that maybe the bad news is priced in it, and looking towards 2016, maybe there is some potential upside, when you are talking about investment opportunities in emerging markets, generally we look at the overall and global risk environment, a lot of people for example are very concerned about the implications of US interest rate hikes through the course of next year, we see the Ruble and Russian assets as relatively desensitized from what happens in the US with interest rates, so from that perspective I think investors are intrigued whether they are ready or not to invest, I'm not so sure, but certainly it's an interesting case study.
We are watching it closely, another issue of course for Russia are geopolitical concerns, even if you think you've got a handle on oil, the Ukraine situation is still unresolved, of course Russians are right at front and center in the Syrian situation, again is that going to be a risk that's hard to quantify for investors?
I think it's quite hard to judge exactly what is priced into Russian assets and the Ruble as well in terms of the geopolitical factor, what we do observe is that whereas a year ago developments in Ukraine would have a day to day or intraday impact on Russian assets, today markets don't seem to move on an intraday basis depending what happens geopolitically, certainly if things are to be resolved or improved, I think that will lead us one of * positive reaction in Russian financial assets, but I think for now investor are treating it as a neutral factor, markets are rather less than * the fact, but it still oversees in the background.
                                                   
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I think for the Ruble it's pretty much all about the price of oil, you reference the fact that the Ruble is as weak today as it was about a year ago, the difference is that a year ago Russia and the Ruble were hit by several factors both internal and external. But today internal things are rather under control, it's much more now about the price of oil. So you have to take a view on the price of oil to know where ruble was going over the next few months, if you take a view that oil prices have further to fall, perhaps the earlier part of next year, than yes, but the downside is therefore the ruble but we think it will steady and pretty well too much further from the current levels. Tom, what impact is this having on the real economy in Russia?
Well, ever since Russia moved to a more floating current regime a year ago, the current has really served as exactly what it should be, which is in the escape valve for other problems or other issues facing in the economy. So for Russia it's a good thing with oil prices falling and ruble also declines because the price of oil is denominating in dollars,but its recipe in terms of spending in the Russia's economies not denominating in rubles. So the price of oil in rubles has risen pretty much unchanged because of the currency has been able to fall to adjust the lower price of oil, so it's a good adjustment factor.
Now that is a really interesting and important point of bringing up. At other places where you don't have that great flexibility. And it is really difficult if you get those markets moving in different directions. I am curious that you talked about the facts that the guess is that the rubble was stabilize I know a lot of people are thinking that at some point oil will stabilize but they were prove wrong before this year. At this point are you seeing investors taking long term bets in sort of buying on these dip, buying into Russia these prices or there is just too much uncertain into even for the most of the aggressive investors out there?
I think certainly investors are trading carefully but they are certainly very intrigued by the Russia story. For markets it's all about what's price did. We know the Russia has been through a tough period but is there a much further downside for Russia and for Russian finance assets?
A lot of investors begin to think that maybe the bad news is priced in it. And looking towards 2016, maybe there are some potential upside. When you talking about investment opportunities in emerging markets. Generally, we look at the overall a global and risk environment, a lot of people for example are very concerned about the implication of the US interest rate hikes through the course of the next year. We see the ruble in Russia's assets are relatively  desensitized from what happens in the US with interests rate. So from that prospective, I think the investors are intrigued whether they are ready or not to invest, I'm not so sure, but certainly an interesting case study.
We are watching it closely, the other issue of course in Russia, are geopolitical concerns, even if you think you get a handle on oil, the Ukraine's situation is still unresolved, of course Russia are right at front and center in the Syria situation, again, is that going to be a risk that's hard to quantity for investors?
I think it's quite hard to judge exactly what is priced into Russia and ruble assets as well in terms of the geopolitical factor, what we do observe is that whereas a year ago, development in Ukraine would have a day to day or intraday impact on Russia assets, today market don't seem to move on to a intraday basis depending on a what happens geopolitically.
Certainly if things are to be resolved or improved. I think that will lead us to one of * positive reaction in Russia financial assets, but I think for now, it looks like investors are treating it as a neutral factor, market is rather less sense to the now-world to that factor, they put a still oversees there on the background.
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Homework

I think for Ruble it’s pretty much all about the price of oil. You referenced the fact that Ruble is as weak today as it was about a year ago. The difference is that a year ago Russia and Ruble were hit by several factors both internal and external, but today internal things are rather under control. It’s much more now about the price of oil, so you have to take a view on the price of oil to know where Ruble is going over the next few months. If you take the view that oil prices have further to fall perhaps in the early part of next year, then yes, the downside is there for the Ruble. But we think it will steady and --- --- too much further from current levels.

Tom, what impact is this having on the real economy in Russia?

Ever since Russia moved to a floating currency regime a year ago, the currency is really served as exactly what it should be which is an escape valve for other problems and other issues facing the economy, so for Russia it’s a good thing. With oil prices falling, the Ruble also declines, because the price of oil is dominated in dollars, but its receipts in terms of spending in the Russian economy dominated in Ruble, so the price of oil in Ruble has remained pretty much unchanged because the currency has been able to fall to adjust the lower price of oil. So it’s a good adjustment factor.

That’s a really interesting and important point to bring up in other places where you don’t have that degree of flexibility. It is really difficult if you get those markets moving in different directions. I’m curious, you said, you talked about the fact that the guess is that the Ruble will stabilize. I know a lot of people are thinking that at some point oil is gonna stabilize, but they were proved wrong before this year. At this point are you seeing investors taking long-term bets and sort of buying on this dip, buying into Russia at these prices, or there are just too much uncertainty even for the most sort of aggressive investors out there?

I think certainly investors are treading carefully. But they are certainly very intrigued by the Russia story. For markets, it’s all about what’s priced. We know Russia has been through a tough period. But is there much further downside for Russia, for Russian financial assets? A lot of investors begin to think that maybe the bad news is priced in it. Looking towards 2016, maybe there are some potential upside. When you’re talking about investment opportunities and emerging markets, generally we look at the overall and global risk environment. A lot of people, for example, are very concerned about the implications of US interest rate hikes though the course of next year. We see the Ruble and Russian assets as relatively desensitized from what happens in the US with interest rates. From that respective, I think investors are intrigued. Whether they are ready or not to invest, I’m not so sure. But certainly it’s an intriguing case study.

We are watching it closely. There are other issues of course for Russia are geopolitical concerns even you think you’ve got a hand on oil that the Ukraine situation still unresolved. Of course Russians are right at the front center in Syria situation. Again, is that gonna be a risk? It’s hard to quantify for investors.

I think it’s quite hard to judge exactly what is priced into Russian assets and Ruble as well in terms of the geopolitical factor. What we do observe is that whereas a year ago development in Ukraine would have a day-to-day or intraday impact on Russian assets, today markets don’t seem to move on an inter-day basis depending on what happens geopolitically. Certainly if things are   resolved or improved, I think that will lead to one of --- positive reaction to Russian financial assets. I think for now investments are treated as neutron factors, markets are rather less sensitive to that fact they put it still overseas in the background.
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