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[国际瞭望] 2016-01-27&02-02 IMF下调全球经济增长预估 因中国增长放缓

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[国际瞭望] 2016-01-27&02-02 IMF下调全球经济增长预估 因中国增长放缓

本帖最后由 qingchengshan 于 2016-1-27 10:30 编辑

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IMF Cuts World Growth Forecast For Third Time


Global growth is expected to be lower than previously predicted with emerging economies such as Brazil bearing the brunt.

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新闻背景:

国际货币基金组织(IMF)针对全球经济增长率预期发布了最新的报告,认为全球经济今年可能会进一步下行,其风险既有对中国经济增速放缓的担忧,也有因美联储加息导致的美元升值和市场上的风险厌恶情绪的升温。IMF警告称,中国经济动荡及新兴市场金融危机蔓延可能对全球经济增速构成拖累。

鉴于多个发展中大国的经济滑坡程度加剧,且美国经济增速不及预期,IMF将今年全球经济增速预期下调0.2个百分点,至3.4%,仅略高于去年增速3.1%。

IMF首席经济学家奥布斯特费尔德(Maurice Obstfeld)在最新发布的《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook)报告中称,今年全球经济将面临重大挑战,除非全球经济成功实现重大转型,否则全球经济增长可能会脱轨。

IMF预计,包括美国、欧元区、日本在内的全球最大经济体明年经济增长率大多将保持不变。中国经济料将放缓,但巴西和俄罗斯将摆脱持续两年的经济衰退,因此IMF预计2017年全球经济增长将稍稍加快。

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HOMEWORK

Fundamental to the current global conjunctures are the same three forces we highlighted last October: China’s slower growth and rising financial-market risks amid a process of macroeconomic rebalancing away from traditional industry and construction towards services and consumption; the fall in commodity prices, notably the price of oil and asynchronous trends in monetary policy mainly between the U.S. and most other advanced economies. The effects continue to play out. Even since mid-October, for example, we’ve seen the price of base metals fall by 15% while the price of oil has fallen more than 40%.

Paradoxically, while risk-adverse investors have focused on the potential negative impacts of these developments, each of them is two sided and carries a silver lining that should make the adverse effects on total world growth less dire than the markets now seem to expect -- especially over the longer term. China’s rebalancing its essential for its transition to a more sustainable and resilient consumption-based growth model; lower commodity prices benefit consumers and they lower production costs; and the Fed’s well communicated interest-rate increase of December reflects the relatively strong performance of the U.S. economy which is still the world’s largest economy. Yet these chances also put adjustment challenges for many countries.

What are the specific numbers? Without going into too much detail, we project that global economic growth of 3.1% in 2015 will accelerate to 3.4% in 2016 and 3.6% in 2017. These figures for 2016 and 2017 are both 0.2 percentage point below what we projected in October. While emerging markets and developing economies account for more than two-thirds of this downward revision, we project they will accelerate moderately this year and next compared to last year. Advanced economies too will accelerate slightly in both 2016 and 2017.
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homework---Fundamental to the current globe conjunctions at the same three forces we highlighted last October. China's slow growth and raising financial market risks and that process of microeconomic rebalancing away from creational industry and construction toward services and consumption. The fallen commodity prices notably the price of oil and a ...in monitory policy mainly between the US and most other against the economies. The effects continue to play out even since middle October. For example, waiting the price of base metals fall by 15% for the price of oil has fallen more than 40%. Paradectly while risk of earth investor are focused on the potential negative impact of these development each of them is two sided and carries super linion that should make the address of effects on total world growth less dier than the markets now seems to it. Specially over the longer term. China's rebalancing is the central for its transition to a more sustainable and reserliant consumption based growth model. Lower commodity prices benefit consumers and the lower production costs. And the feds well communicated intri...increase December reflects rele...strong performance of the US economy which is still the world's largest economy. Yet these changes also pose a big justment challenges for many countries. What is the pacific numbers without going into too much detail we project that globe economic growth of 3.1% in 2014 mili accelerate to 3.4% in 2016 and 3.6% in 2017. These figures for 2016 and 2017 are both 0.2% ...below what we projected in October. ...emergent markets in developing economies account for more than 2/3 of this downward reversion. We project they will accelerate modelrively this year and next. Compare to last year an advanced economy to accelerate slightly in both 2016 and 2017.
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[Homework]2016-01-27&02-02 IMF下调全球经济增长预估 因中国增长放缓

Fundamental to the current global conjunctures for the same three forces we highlighted last October.China's slower growth and rising financial market risks in its process of micro-economic rebanlancing away from traditional industry and construction towards services and consumption.
The fall in commodity prices, notably the price of oil and i think  in monitory policy mainly between the US and most other advanced economies.
The effects continue to play out even since mid-October. For example,  which the price of base metal falls by 15%, while the price of oil has fallen more than 40%.


Paradoxically while riskverse investors focused on the potential negative impacts of these developments. each of them is two-sided and carries a super lining that should make the adverse effects on total world growth less dire than  the market  now seems to expect especially over the longer term.
china's rebalancing is essential for its transition to a more sustanible and resilient consumption based growth model.Lower commodity prices benefit consumers and they lower production cost.


And the Feds while communicated interest rate increase December reflects a relatively strong performance of the US economy which is still the world's largest economy.Yet these changes also pose big adjustment challenges for many countries.What is the specific numbers? Without going into too much detail, we project the global economic growth of 3.1% in 2015, but accelerate 3.4% in 2016 and 3.6% in 2017.


These figures for 2016 and 2017 are both 0.2% below what we projected in October.but the emerging market in developing economies account for more than two thirds of these downward revision we project they will accelerate moderately this year and next.Compared to last year, and advanced economy too accelerate slightly in both 2016 and 2017.


This post was generated by put listening repetition system,  Check the original dictation thread!
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[Homework]2016-01-27&02-02 IMF下调全球经济增长预估 因中国增长放缓

Fundamental for the current global conjectures for the same three forces we highlighted last October, China's slower growth and rising financial market risks amid processes of macro-economic rebalancing, away from traditional industry and construction towards services and consumption, the falling commodity prices, notably the price of oil and * in monetary policy mainly between the US and most other advanced economies, the effects continue to play out even since mid October, for example we've seen the price of base metals fall by 15%, while the price of oil has fallen more than 40%. Paradoxically while risk aversion investors have focused on the potential negative impacts of these developments, each of them is two-sided and carries a silver lining, it should make the adverse effects on total world growth less dire than the markets now seem to expect, especially over the longer term. China's rebalancing is essential for its transition to a more sustainable and resilient consumption based growth model, lower commodity prices benefit consumers and they lower production costs, and the Fed's well communicated interest rate increase in December reflects a relatively strong performance of the US economy which is still the world's largest economy. Yet these changes also pose big adjustment challenges for many countries. What are the specific numbers? without going into too much detail we project the global economic growth of 3.1% in 2015 will accelerate to 3.4% in 2016, and 3.6% in 2017, these figures for 2016 and 2017 are both 0.2% below what we projected in October. While emerging markets in developing economies account for more than 2/3 of this downward revision, we project they will accelerate moderately this year and next, compare to last year and advanced economies too will accelerate slightly in both 2016 and 2017.
This post was generated by put listening repetition system,  Check the original dictation thread!

[Homework]2016-01-27&02-02 IMF下调全球经济增长预估 因中国增长放缓

[Homework]2016-01-27&02-02 IMF下调全球经济增长预估 因中国增长放缓

Foundamental to be current globalconjunctures are the same three forces we highlighted last October. China'sslower growth and raising financial market risks and it prosess marcoeconomicrebalancing away from the traditional industry construction for services andconsumption. The fallen commodity prices, notably the price of oil and theASEAN trend in monetary policy mainly between the U.S. and most other advancedeconomies. The effects continue to play out. Even since the mid October, forexample, which in the prices these modal fall by 15%, while the price of oil hasfallen more than 14%. Paradoxically, while risk of these investors focused onthe potential negative impact to these developments. Each of them has two sidesand carries a silver lining that should make the adverse effect on total worldgrowth less dyer than the market now seems to expect, especially over thelonger term. China's rebalancing is essential for its transition to a moresustainable and resilient consumption day growth model. Lower commodity pricesbenefit consumers and the production costs. And the FED well communicatedentrance rate increase in December reflects the relative strong performance inU.S. economy which is still the world largest world economy. Get these changesalso pose a big adjustment challenges for many countries. Well, the specificnumbers without going into too much details project the global economy growthof 3.1% in 2015, will accelerate in 3.4% in 2016 and 3.6% in 2017. These figurefor 2016 and 17 are both 0.2% below what we projected October. While theemerging market in developing economies account for more than two thirds ofthis downward revision. We project they will accelerate moderately this yearand next. Compare to last year, the advance economies too will accelerateslightly in both 2016 and 2017.
                                                   
This post was generated by put listening repetition system,  Check the original dictation thread!
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