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[商业新闻] 2016-06-01&06-03 美国房地产市场面临又一场崩溃

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housing is slowing a little bit, but that's ok, we are basically returning to
a more normal housing market, and housing is better when it is boring or
entering boring and that's pretty good actually.

do you feel like buyers a little bit concerning, even though mortgage rates
are still at historic lows, employement seems to be getting better, you will
think all of these factors are actually pretty good for buying a house.

what's happened is people have reset their expectations about what is
reasonable long term housing appreciaton, they realize now that you should
really buy a house if you are going to be in it for three or more years, so
no longer assume that housing is just a fantastic investment, sometimes it is,
sometimes it isn't, now you have people buying based on whether they are really
gonna love the home and live there for along time, rather than purely speculated.

do you think that there is somewhat a result of shellshock from the housing bubble
and burst of the housing bubble.

it's absolutely the result of the shellsock from the housing bubble, so what
happened during the upswing was about seven million people bought homes that
shouldn't and seven millon people on the way down were foreclosed upon. and now
here we are kind of the new steady state and those people have to become renters
and unfortunately, there wasn't new rental supply created because it take many
years for new buildings to be built, as a result, rents have appreciated rapidly
cause all these new rental demand and not enough rental supply, and comparatively
speaking, buying looks more attractive especially because there are very low
mortage rates, but the best piece of advice for a home buyer when thinking wether
to buy or rent, is to evaluate how long they are gonna live in the home, if you
can be in the home for more than two years, nationally, you are better off
buying thant renting, but there are wildly region diffenences, so in Manhattan,
for example, you have to be in home for more than five years, for it make sense
to buy rather than rent, in Detroit, it's only about six months,

is there anything to you indicates either you are going to, we are going to see
more home buying, or less home buying going forward, what do you pay attention to.

we pay attention to housing starts and multi-family construction starts, because
that's where new inventory constructure, those happened pretty low, it takes
literally years for shovels to be in the ground, building new building or
building your home, and finally  we start to see that, come online, suprisingly,
we don't actually forecast much impact from Fed raising rates on home purchase
activity, as a leading indicator of demand, we look at pre-approvals, morgage
originations, or just activities on web sites, so how many people are actually
just looking for real estate?

and what do you think?

that looks very healthy.

what's very healthy?

well, our traffic is up 20% year over year, we have 125 million unique users a
month, so a lot of people are very interesting in real estate, but the big
challenge now to the housing is supply, so there's just not that much inventory.
people don't list their home, because there is not enough to buy, and there is
no supply, and then there is no listsing to occurs, so that's a kind of
negative cycle that only repairs itself when new supply get built, or home values
increase, pulling people add up negative equity.
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