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[商业新闻] 2016-06-01&06-03 美国房地产市场面临又一场崩溃

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Housing is slowing a little bit, but that’s ok, we are basically returning to a more normal housing market, and housing is better when it’s boring or entering boring and that’s pretty good actually.

Do you feel like buyers are a little bit concerned? Even though mortgage rates are still at historic lows, employment rate seems to be getting better, you would think all of these factors are actually pretty good for buying a house?

What’s happened is people have reset their expectations about what is reasonable long-term housing appreciation. They realize now that you should really only buy a house if you are going to be in it for three or more years, so no longer assume that housing is just a fantastic investment. Sometimes it is. Sometimes it isn’t. Now you have people buying based on whether they are really gonna love the home and live there for a long time, rather than purely speculated.

Do you think there’s somewhat a result of shellshock from the housing bubble and the burst of housing bubble?

It’s absolutely the result of shellshock from the housing bubble. So what happened during the upswing was about seven million people bought homes that shouldn’t and then seven million people on the way down were foreclosed upon. And now here we are kind of the new steady stay and those people have become renters and unfortunately, there wasn’t new rental supply created because it takes many years for new buildings to be built. As a result, rents have appreciated rapidly ‘cause there is all this rental demand and not enough for rental supply. And comparatively speaking, buying looks more attractive especially because there are very low mortgage rates. But the best piece of advice for a home-buyer when thinking about whether to buy or rent, is to evaluate how long they are gonna live in the home. If you are gonna
be in the home for more than two years, nationally, you are better-off buying than renting. But there are wide regional differences. So in Manhattan for example, you have to be in a home for more than five years for it makes sense to buy rather than rent. In Detroit, it’s only about six months.
Is there anything to you that indicates either we are gonna go to see more home buying or less home buying going forward, what do you pay attention to?

We pay attention to housing starts and multi-family construction starts ‘cause that’s where new inventory comes from. Those happened pretty low. It takes literally years for shovels to be in the ground, building new buildings or building new homes and finally we are starting to see that, come online. Surprisingly, we don’t actually forecast much impact from the Fed raising rates on home-purchase activity. As leading indicator of demand, we look at pre-approvals, mortgage originations and just activity on the websites. So how many people are actually just looking for real estate…

And what do you think?

That looks very, very healthy.

What’s very healthy?
Well, our traffic is up about 20% year over year. We have 125 million unique users a month. So a lot of people are very interested in real estate. But the biggest challenge now to housing is supply. So there’s just not that much inventory. People don’t list their home because there’s not enough to buy and there is no supply and then there is no listing occurs. So it’s kind of a negative cycle that only repairs itself when new supply gets built or home values increase, pulling people add up negative equity.
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