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[商业新闻] 【整理】2013-06-30&07-02 沃达丰欲77亿欧元收购德国Kabel

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Mobile is extremely vulnerable, particularly if you don’t have access to your own fixed lines, and this will give them enough fixed lines to carry about 40% of the traffic they do in Germany.

So, if I get it right, they will be doing mobile phones, landline phones, broadband and TV.

The quadruple plan. What the players in the market have found is that the chain factor, or the customers are moving to other providers can be cut by as much as 60% if you move from one product to four products. That’s what it’s all about. Mobile penetration, phone penetration is whatever 100% in developed economies, is all about slowing that chain to preserve your revenue and cash file.

Is that because consumers say “well, I may have the nerve and the appetite to change my phone provider, but can I really take the risk and change everything all at once”?

Yes, that’s absolutely right. That’s precisely why a mobile is so vulnerable, because all of us, we change our mobile phone far more often than we change our fixed lines. It doesn’t require anyone to drill a hole in the wall, put a satellite dish up on our roof. All we do, we just go to the shop and … someone offer me an alternative package. Vodafone without this type of deal and similar deals that it’s done in the UK and New Zealand is extremely vulnerable.

Right, so we can see what Voda gets out. What about German consumers? Germany is rich and vibrant economy. Are the consumers ready for a day like this?

Well, they are. I mean it is a convenient factor. But of course, in Kabel is not agreeing to sell itself primarily for the benefit of German consumer. I mean there is a number of management, not just the very senior, but probably the top third tier/thirty or so directors extremely well incentivized to sell this company at the right price. And it looks a very attractive deal.

I pick my way through the press release. Not only are they well incentivized to sell it, but under the terms of the deal, many will stay.

Well, that’s right.

So they get the bonus, and they keep their jobs.

Well, absolutely. And a beautiful thing about the option package they are charged under is all depends on by how much you outperform your peer group. And of course after a period of bit speculation, and in which as you mention Liberty’s been involved as well as Vodafone, that outperformance over peer group is about why it’s ever gonna get. This is the maximum number of shares they probably get and they get them earlier they would have done. So it’s a win-win plan.
It’s three lemons on the machine for them. What about the possibility of the account bill. I did read that. If you look at the share price tonight, Kabel share price is about 85 Euros, that’s below the offer price. So that would tell me that the market doesn’t believe an account bill is coming.
This is smart move for Vodafone. It’s a defensive move because they have to make it, but they know the KPN and telephone in Deutschland are in the background they’d love to do, but they haven’t got the balance sheet, and they know Liberty is tied up with the virgin media deal. And they are not really in a position to do another one to offer the all cash deal that Vodafone can make it available. So timing is pre-exhibitors for Vodafone. It’s a great time to get in and keep the competition at bay.
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